Remember the last time there was a ban in Standard? We needed it so badly that the format was almost unplayable and two different decks were way too powerful compared to everything else. We aren't in as dire a situation currently, but this time it is arguably more annoying and unfun. Magic Spotlight just wrapped up in Orlando and we saw a top 8 field that had 75% Vivi Cauldron representation. The metagame itself was about 55%. This is even worse than it was with Cutter. It is evident that Vivi is the best deck, and it has gotten to the point where other decks are abandoning their gameplan to include cards in the main deck to try and stop the Vivi combo. This is a dead giveaway that we have a glaring issue. Since I believe that some type of ban will happen, I think it is useful to consider what Standard looks like after that, and what decks might emerge. We will take a look at the other deck that did well in the event, and what list starts to stand out after the imminent ban on either Vivi or Cauldron.
There was a silver lining today. Amidst all of the complaints about the current format, mono red set all that aside and took care of business. Needless to say, the deck looks very different than it did the last time we saw it in a major event, but the archetype itself is proving to have evergreen efficacy. You have to figure that this deck is still good after additional bans, but it definitely would look different. It would be allowed to have more of a gameplan, and the gameplay of the deck would likely be more linear. It was relieving to see that Vivi didn't outright win the event, but even without the deck getting first, it still feels like it won in a lot of ways.
There isn't a ton to actually recap for the event. It was a ton of Vivi, and Mono Red did its best to fight against it. There were a couple of Mono Black decks that made two, some Dimir, and some Azorius Midrange. When it came down to it, however, the top 16 was virtually all of the top 2 decks.
So, What ACTUALLY Gets Banned?
The general consensus is that either Agatha's Soul Cauldron or Vivi Ornitier gets banned. If they flat-out ban Vivi, it is basically an admission that they didn't do a proper banning last time. Since I don't think they would own up to it, or make themselves look bad in that light, I believe that Cauldron gets the ban. I think it is something that also allows for a possibly more "fair" Vivi deck to emerge, where Cauldron is a deck that always saw fringe play in the format, and was never a staple in Standard. The fact that Cauldron rotates in a year also helps the case for keeping Vivi in the format for a bit longer. Admittedly, I do believe that the ability on Vivi is simply too broken and it is kind of unfortunate that a fun card like Cauldron is a casualty as a result of the efforts to keep it in the format.
The case for Vivi to be banned is certainly there. I think it's a toss-up. It has to be one or the other, or even both, but there is a case for both cards. It's also possible that if they ban Vivi, we may see another card get unbanned. I am not sure what that is, but I think some of the cards took the fall in the last banning for Vivi—similar to what Cauldron would do if that ends up getting the hammer this time around.
Emerging Archetypes After Bans
We have to think that Dimir decks continue to be good after the imminent bans. It likely solidifies itself as the strongest deck. I don't mind playing against Dimir. It feels like a much more winnable matchup compared to Vivi. Cards like Kaito, Bane of Nightmares and Floodpits Drowner are a little frustrating, but there are a lot of ways to deal with it, and the deck doesn't just flat-out win the game in one turn out of nowhere like Vivi does, so you generally always at least have a chance.
I'm not sure it qualifies as "emerging" but I am confident that Mono Red would stay good. Some of the lists are going more of a midrange route, and that is helpful to compete with the grindiness that the format has, and will see more of after bans. Cards like Nova Hellkite and Sunspine Lynx are awesome top end for the deck, and definitely allow it to be more well-rounded.
You know I have to get my punches in here, too. Mono Black should see an improvement. I think what is stopping people from playing it currently is the lack of artifact removal. If we don't have to worry about Cauldron, I think the archetype becomes much more appealing.
Lastly, we may be looking at more of the Oculus decks coming back around. That deck was kind of similar to the Cauldron decks, and it still relied on drawing a bunch of cards and then making a huge creature, then getting two combat steps. Coupling that with access to a lot of flyers could be the direct pivot to a meta with no Vivi/Cauldron.
I am not sure that WOTC will call for emergency bans the day after the event, but we have to think that something is coming at least before the next pro tour. The next announcement date would not be until November 24th if they let it go as planned, but the next Pro Tour is scheduled for September 26-28. You have to think that if they do a ban, it is at least a couple of weeks before the Pro Tour event to give people time to playtest, and get new decks together. Either way, you have to figure that they know it is not good for Convention turnout, or viewership of Pro Tour Coverage to have a Standard Format where 55% of the meta is one deck. Who knows what will happen—regardless I will be here with opinions!